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Rational expectation hypothesis argues that there is no role for government

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: In everyday language, the word usually refers to an educated guess — or an idea that we are quite uncertain about. Scientific hypotheses, however, are much more informed than any guess and are usually based on prior experience, scientific background knowledge, preliminary observations, and logic. In addition, hypotheses are often supported by many different lines of evidence — in which case, scientists are more confident in them than they would be in any mere "guess." To further complicate matters, science textbooks frequently misuse the term in a slightly different way. They may ask students to make a about the outcome of an experiment (e.g., table salt will dissolve in water more quickly than rock salt will). This is simply a prediction or a guess (even if a well-informed one) about the outcome of an experiment. Scientific hypotheses, on the other hand, have explanatory power — they are explanations for phenomena. The idea that table salt dissolves faster than rock salt is not very hypothesis-like because it is not very explanatory. A more scientific (i.e., more explanatory) hypothesis might be "The amount of surface area a substance has affects how quickly it can dissolve. More surface area means a faster rate of dissolution." This hypothesis has some explanatory power — it gives us an idea of a particular phenomenon occurs — and it is testable because it generates expectations about what we should observe in different situations. If the hypothesis is accurate, then we'd expect that, for example, sugar processed to a powder should dissolve more quickly than granular sugar. Students could examine rates of dissolution of many different substances in powdered, granular, and pellet form to further test the idea. The statement "Table salt will dissolve in water more quickly than rock salt" is not a hypothesis, but an expectation generated by a hypothesis. Textbooks and science labs can lead to confusions about the difference between a hypothesis and an expectation regarding the outcome of a scientific test. To learn more about scientific hypotheses, visit in our section on how science works.

Unfortunately, many textbooks promulgate misconceptions about the nature and process of science

As we will see below, when we review the scientific studies that have shown how conditioning affects our response to medical treatment, conditioning can involve much more than obvious factors like getting an injection, taking a pill, or being touched where it hurts. Conditioning can involve the theater of the medical setting and medical rituals, including the medical uniforms worn, medical jargon spoken, and medical gadgetry used. These conditions affect the patient's expectation of relief by the treatment, as does the manner of the healer. Patient expectation, it turns out, plays a significant role in the effectiveness of many kinds of treatment. In short, classical conditioning is "hypothesized to be the primary triggering mechanism for the placebo effect ... which must be learned before it can manifest itself...." (Bausell 2007: 131).

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Forward rate unbiased hypothesis, risk premium and exchange rate expectations: estimates on Pakistan Rupee-US Dollar

Another worry that critics have about evolutionarypsychologists' approach to hypothesis testing is that they giveinsufficient weight to serious alternate hypotheses that fit therelevant data. Buller dedicates several chapters of his book onevolutionary psychology to an examination of hypothesis testing andmany of his criticisms center around the introduction of alternatehypotheses that do as good a job, or a better job, of accounting forthe data. For example, he argues that the hypothesis ofassortative mating by status does a better job of accounting for someof evolutionary psychologists' mate selection data than theirpreferred high status preference hypothesis. This debate hangs onhow the empirical tests come out. The previous debate is moreclosely connected to theoretical issues in philosophy of biology.

Many philosophers who work on moral psychology understand that theirtopic is empirically constrained. Philosophers take two mainapproaches to using empirical results in moral psychology. One isto use empirical results (and empirically based theories frompsychology) to criticize philosophical accounts of moral psychology(see e.g. Doris 2002) and one is to generate (and, in the experimentalphilosophy tradition, to test) hypotheses about our moral psychology(see e.g. Nichols 2004). For those who think that some (or all)of our moral psychology is based in innate capacities, evolutionarypsychology is a good source of empirical results and empirically basedtheory. One account of the make-up of our moral psychologyfollows from the massive modularity account of the architecture of themind. Our moral judgments are a product of domain specificpsychological modules that are adaptations and arose in our hominidforebears in response to contingencies in our (mostly) socialenvironments. This position is currently widely discussedby philosophers working in moral psychology. An example of thisdiscussion follows.

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In this paper we examine the possibility of testing the rational expectation hypothesis from simultaneous observations of some ..

These selected explanatory variables are correctly signed in accordance with the priori expectations except national savings with negative sign, indicating that savings is not contributing significantly to growth in Nigeria.

Aside from monitoring the expansion efforts of evolutionarypsychology, there are a number of other areas in which furtherphilosophical work on evolutionary psychology will be fruitful. Theexample given above of work in moral psychology barely scratches thesurface of this rapidly developing field. There are huge numbers ofempirical hypotheses that bear on our conception of our moralpsychology that demand philosophical scrutiny. (Hauser 2006 includes asurvey of a wide range of such hypotheses.) Also, work on moralpsychology and the emotions can be drawn together via work onevolutionary psychology and related fields. Griffiths (1997) directedphilosophical attention to evolution and the emotions and this kind ofwork has been brought into closer contact with moral psychology byNichols (see e.g. his 2004). In philosophy of mind there is still muchthat can be done on the topic of modules. Work on integratingbiological and psychological concepts of modules is one avenue that isbeing pursued and could be fruitfully pursued further (seee.g. Barrett and Kurzban 2006; Carruthers 2006) and work on connectingbiology to psychology via genetics is another promising area (seee.g. Marcus 2004). In philosophy of science, I have no doubt that manymore criticisms of evolutionary psychology will be presented but arelatively underdeveloped area of philosophical research is on therelations among all of the various, theoretically different,approaches to the biology of human behavior (cf. Downes 2005;Griffiths 2008). Evolutionary psychologists present their workalongside the work of behavioral ecologists, developmentalpsychobiologists and others (see e.g. Buss 2005; Buss 2007) but do notadequately confront the theoretical difficulties that face anintegrated enterprise in the biology of human behavior. Finally, whiledebate rages between biologically influenced and other socialscientists, most philosophers have not paid much attention topotential integration of evolutionary psychology into the broaderinterdisciplinary study of society and culture (but see Mallon andStich 2000 on evolutionary psychology and constructivism). Incontrast, feminist philosophers have paid attention to thisintegration issue as well as offering feminist critiques ofevolutionary psychology (see Fehr 2012, Meynell 2012 and the entry on ).

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In other words, the simplest correction is to move the cut-off point for the continuous distribution from the observed value of the discrete distribution to midway between that and the next value in the direction of the null hypothesis expectation.

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Knowing these things and given my experience with scientific medicine, I can see no reason to consult an acupuncturist for any ailment I might have. I understand, however, why practitioners and patients alike are convinced that the benefits of acupuncture are due to sticking needles into people. I'm not expecting these folks to change their minds about acupuncture on the basis of the evidence, which they will probably interpret differently. After all, there are plenty of opportunities for on both sides of this issue. Skeptics will continue to note any case where acupuncture doesn't help someone or causes harm, and we will continue to identify high caliber studies that support the hypothesis that acupuncture works by conditioning and placebo effects. Believers will continue to point to their successes and to the scientific studies that seem to support their viewpoint, while ignoring or misinterpreting the occasional high-caliber study that is published. Believers have the additional advantage of having on their side popular celebrities like . A single celebrity endorsement carries more weight with many people than a thousand high-caliber scientific studies, especially with people who have a low opinion of scientific medicine. People who have had bad experiences with conventional medicine, or who are believers in the Big Pharma/AMA conspiracy to keep us sick so they can make money, can easily find examples of experiences that support favoring acupuncture or other forms of alternative treatment over scientific medicine. To them I say: I hope all your ailments are minor ones, but if you have a heart attack or a stroke I hope others will make sure you get the best treatment that scientific medicine has to offer.

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Evolutionary psychology is invoked in a wide range of areas of study,for example, in English Literature, Consumer Studies and Law. (SeeBuss 2005 for discussion of Literature and Law and Saad 2007 for adetailed presentation of evolutionary psychology and consumerstudies.) In these contexts, evolutionary psychology is usuallyintroduced as providing resources for practitioners, which willadvance the relevant field. Philosophers have responded critically tosome of these applications of evolutionary psychology. One concern isthat often evolutionary psychology is conflated with evolution orevolutionary theory in general (see e.g. Leiter and Weisberg 2009 andDownes 2013). The discussion reviewed in Section 4. above, reveals agood deal of disagreement between evolutionary theorists andevolutionary psychologists over the proper account ofevolution. Evolutionary psychologists offer to enhance fields such asLaw and Consumer Studies by introducing evolutionary ideas but what isin fact offered is a selection of theoretical resources championedonly by proponents of a specific approach to evolutionarypsychology. For example, Gad Saad (2007) argues that Consumer Studieswill profit greatly from the addition of adaptive thinking,i.e. looking for apparent design, and by introducing hypotheticalevolved modules to account for consumer behavior. Many do not see thisas an effort to bring evolutionary theory, broadly construed, to bearon Consumer Studies (cf. Downes 2013). Promoting disputed theoreticalideas is certainly problematic but bigger worries arise whenthoroughly discredited work is promoted in the effort to applyevolutionary psychology. Owen Jones (see e.g. 2000; 2005), whobelieves that Law will benefit from the application of evolutionarypsychology, champions Randy Thornhill and Craig Palmer's (2000) widelydiscredited view that rape is an adaptation as exemplary evolutionarywork (see de Waal 2000, Coyne and Berry 2000, Coyne 2003, Lloyd 2003,Vickers and Kitcher 2003, and Kimmel 2003). Further, Jones (2000)claims that the critics of Thornhill and Palmer's work have nocredibility as scientists and evolutionary theorists. This claimindicates Jones' serious disconnect with the wider scientific (andphilosophical) literature on evolutionary theory (cf. Leiter andWeisberg 2009).

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